Bryan Berenguer,* Brian Skahill, and Manfred Stoll
*Chemeketa Community College, Northwest Wine Studies Center, 215 Doaks Ferry Rd NW, Salem, OR, 97304 (bberengu@chemeketa.edu)

This analysis is a follow-up to two recent studies that separately examined the ripening potential of Pinot noir in Northern California’s Fort Ross-Seaview, Los Carneros, Petaluma Gap and Russian River Valley American Viticultural Areas (AVAs) and in Oregon’s Willamette Valley AVA. Each study involved computations of the growing season average temperature viticulture climate classification index and Pinot noir-specific applications of the grapevine sugar ripeness (GSR) model on a mean decadal basis from the 1950s to the 2090s using coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 projections of minimum and maximum daily temperature. The California study used the second version of the multivariate adaptive constructed analogs downscaled CMIP5 model archive, which accounts for the onshore penetration of the marine layer in the coastal zone and cold-air pooling in complex terrain. The Oregon study applied the localized constructed analogs downscaled CMIP5 model archive. Both studies showed a progressive trend of decreasing area to support an optimal harvest window (10 Sept to 10 Oct) for Pinot noir in each AVA and for each RCP-emission scenario, which was more pronounced for the RCP8.5 scenario projections. This study applies the temperature-based GSR phenology models that were developed in each of the two noted studies to evaluate alternative cultivars that may be more suitable for ripening in each AVA due to climate change.

Funding Support: No external funding